FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, one of the most respected numbers guys around, like most of us thought Maine’s marriage law would not be repealed. It was. Before you sharpen your pen – or your sword – read his analysis. The key part is this:
“We had given Question 1 about a 70 percent chance of being defeated based on a combination of an analysis of the polling and a statistical model. I don’t know how much time I’m supposed to spend defending being on the wrong side of a 70:30 bet — we build in a hedge for a reason — but here comes a little self-reflection. As for the polling, I think we have to seriously consider whether there is some sort of a Bradley Effect in the polling on gay rights issues… I’ll need to look whether the urban-rural divide is a significant factor in a state in addition to its religiosity: Maine is secular, but rural. At the end of the day, it may have been too much to ask of a state to vote to approve gay marriage in an election where gay marriage itself was the headline issue on the ballot. Although the enthusiasm gap is very probably narrowing, feelings about gay marriage have traditionally been much stronger on the right than the left, and that’s what gets people up off the couch in off-year elections.”
I’ll just emphasize one point: The Roman Catholic Church’s dioceses (I have to use the word “dioceses” or I’ll get into trouble) spent a lot of time and money lying to people about us. And yet we’re supposed to turn the other cheek?
Related posts:
- Maine Voters Say “We Don’t” To Gay Marriage
- Maine Governor Signs Gay Marriage Bill
- BREAKING: Maine House Passes Gay Marriage Bill 89-58
- BREAKING NEWS: Gay Marriage Bill Passes Maine Senate
- What’s The Next State To Support Gay Marriage?
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I am feeling so disheartened this morning byt he outcome. And I keep asking, why do we have to go through this? At what other time, historically, were civil rights up for a public vote?
I do believe what Nate said about a "Bradley Effect" and voter turn-out on an off-year election. However, with that said, the dye has been cast and the freedom lost.
Now what do we do to pick ourselves up and keep on fighting? Where is the next battle and how can we win?
This shall not last. While it's three years away, 2012 will be the year the initiative will appear on the ballot and gay marriage will become legal. As Generation O takes over the ballot box, you will see social norms change dramatically.
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