The New York Times’ Nate Silver has yet again increased President Obama‘s chances of winning a second term to 85.5%, continuing his momentum over the past few weeks. Silver’s model projects Obama winning 306 electoral college votes, but still only 50.5% of the popular vote.
According to Silver’s math (yes, Republicans, it’s called math,) Mitt Romney has a mere 14.5% chance of winning on election day, or about a one in seven chance.
The latest Pew Poll puts the numbers at 50% Obama, 47% Romney.
Elsewhere, for the latest popular vote estimates, Polltracker puts Obama over Romney by +.7%, Real Clear Politics puts Obama up by .5%, and the Huffington Post gives Obama 277 electoral college votes against Romney’s 191.
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Despite being nerve-wracking to trust that 50.5% of the popular vote will win the Presidency, it's not hard for me to believe the Chicago operation had the 306 electoral college number in its sights from the beginning, along with multiple paths to achieving it.
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