ANALYSIS
‘Five-Alarm Fire’: Top Political Scientist Warns After Republican Wins – ‘Democrats Weren’t Excited’
Veteran political scientist Larry Sabato is warning Democrats to take Glenn Youngkin’s win in the Virginia gubernatorial race seriously.
Sabato, the founder and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia says national Democrats need to learn the lessons from Tuesday night’s loss.
“If this wasn’t a five-alarm fire for Democrats nothing will be,” he says.
Sabato blames President Joe Biden’s diminished approval rating and “the inaction of the House and Senate Democrats on the two big proposals that President Biden has on the table,” in part for Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s loss.
“Democrats weren’t excited and I saw that and going through all the votes,” he added, saying “the Republican base was completely activated.”
“The Republican turnouts were unbelievable, particularly in rural counties. It wasn’t just the absolute number. A lot of them are small counties without a lot of votes, but when you add them together, and the Republican nominees were getting, listen to this 85% of the vote 85% That doesn’t happen very often.”
CNN’s host trotted out Republican talking points, but Sabato clarified, noting that Democrats ignored those GOP claims.
Sabato called McAuliffe’s “gaffe” that parents shouldn’t have control over what their children learn in schools a “fundamental error,” noting that the campaign “never really engaged on the parental influence in the schools issue. They never really engaged with the Republican claims about critical race theory, which isn’t taught in Virginia, of course, but you have to engage you have to present your side of the argument. You can’t just walk away from it and try to focus on, say, Donald Trump. And that’s a lesson for Democrats going forward and then 2020 to look at what the other side is saying. And refute it if you can.”
Watch:
“If this wasn’t a five-alarm fire for Democrats, nothing will be.” Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, discusses the impact of Republican Glenn Youngkin’s win in the race for state governor and what lessons Democrats should learn. pic.twitter.com/59HRhnBVZs
— CNN Newsroom (@CNNnewsroom) November 3, 2021
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President Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity is taking a toll on Republican candidates, with once-solidly-red states showing deepening blue cracks as his Iran war, gas and food prices, inflation, and overall economic uncertainty take hold of voters.
The signs have been there: the massive “No Kings” protests, the breaks by once-devout MAGA allies, Fox News acknowledging that Trump is “underwater” with voters, the mass exodus of Republicans from Congress, historically low consumer sentiment, and, of course, the polls.
Trump’s approval rating has been characterized as lower than any modern-day president’s at this point in their term.
According to The Economist, Trump’s approval rating is at 37 percent, and his disapproval rating is at 56 percent. That’s a net negative of 19 points.
It’s worse in the red state of Georgia, where Trump is 23 points underwater.
According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein, 56 percent of voters in the Peach State disapprove of Trump’s handling of rising gas prices. 57 percent say the money spent on his Iran war is contributing to higher prices and uncertainty. And 53 percent disapprove of his handling of the Iran war.
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The Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor reports that they have just moved the Georgia Senate race from Toss Up to Lean Democratic.
“Some of this is outside of GOP candidates’ control,” Taylor writes, “and Trump is hurting them so much right now on Iran/gas prices when voters uniformly say their top worry is the economy.”
She also reports that Cook Political has moved three other Senate races toward the Democrats: North Carolina (Toss Up to Lean Democratic), Ohio (Lean Republican to Toss Up), and Nebraska (Solid Republican to Lean Republican).
“Right now, we see the likeliest outcome is a 1 to 3 seat Democratic pickup – just short of 4 they need” to take control of the Senate majority, Taylor writes.
Democrats have high hopes in other states as well, including Alaska, where Trump is 12 points underwater; Maine, where he is 25 points underwater; and Texas, where he is 19 points underwater.
And Iowa, where Trump is underwater by 14 points, according to The Economist.
“Iowa looks to be seriously in play for Democrats in November up and down the ballot, according to a new survey from a Democratic group that backs moderate candidates,” Politico reports.
Democrat Rob Sand is leading Republican Randy Feenstra in the Iowa governor’s race — by eight points, while Republicans hold “slim leads” in the Senate race.
The Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund is expected to pour millions into Iowa, “making it one of five GOP-held states where they’ve made a major investment as they fight to keep the majority.”
Former Obama official Tommy Vietor notes that “Iowa really does look competitive this year. It’s a combination of Trump fatigue, economy/inflation, and tariffs crushing farmers. Dem pickup opportunities include: Governor, US Senate, three House races (dream big and its all four), and its WAY cheaper than other states.”
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Image via Reuters
Fox News has published a striking assessment of President Donald Trump’s political standing ahead of the midterms.
In a Friday article about the president’s firing of Attorney General Pam Bondi, the conservative outlet reported that other Cabinet officials could also be on the “chopping block” — and offered a blunt assessment: Trump is “saddled with underwater approval ratings and an unpopular war ahead of this year’s crucial midterm elections, when Republicans are working to hold onto their slim House and Senate majorities.”
Last month, Fox News acknowledged that the Republican Party is “underwater” with voters, while reporting that Democrats had sunk to a “new low.” Fox News rarely applies the term “underwater” to Republicans, a search of the outlet’s website revealed.
On Wednesday, Fox News reported that “polls indicate” the war in Iran is “unpopular with many Americans, and a surge in gas prices as a direct result of the fighting have triggered a further slide in Trump’s standing in public opinion surveys.”
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That report noted at the top that “Trump stands at 41% approval and 59% disapproval in the most recent Fox News national poll.”
“The political implications are clear,” the report added. “The strikes on Iran and the erosion of the president’s approval ratings are warning signs for the GOP as Republicans ramp up to defend their slim House and Senate majorities in this autumn’s midterm elections.”
It also added that “Trump’s base remains extremely supportive of the president and the war,” and that “much of the slippage” is coming from “non-MAGA Republicans.”
Friday’s blunt Fox News language comes one day after Mediaite’s Colby Hall wrote an opinion piece about the Fox News channel, titled: “Fox News Viewers Have No Clue Trump’s Approval Rating Has Cratered.”
“President Donald Trump is currently enduring the most significant and sustained approval rating decline of his presidency, and the most-watched news network in America is virtually ignoring it,” Hall wrote.
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Image via Reuters
House Republicans have inserted anti-LGBTQ language into a $66 billion must-pass funding bill for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, effectively granting civil immunity under federal law to individuals and organizations that discriminate against same-sex couples—by citing a religious or moral belief that marriage should be limited to one man and one woman. It also bans the federal government from taking a range of actions against those who hold and act on anti-same-sex marriage beliefs.
Section 544 bans the use of federal funds to take any “discriminatory action” against someone who cites their “sincerely held religious belief” or “moral conviction” that marriage is only “a union of one man and one woman.”
A portion of the provision exactly matches language U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) urged the House Appropriations Committee to include in 2023 legislation. Rep. Roy cited praise from anti-LGBTQ hate group leader Tony Perkins and other anti-LGBTQ activists in his press release urging inclusion of the amendment in a 2023 bill. It is not known who drafted or approved the current 2025 provision.
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Journalist Jamie Dupree, who writes Regular Order at Substack, first reported on the provision in the DHS funding bill.
The language could prohibit the government from withholding federal funds from a federally-funded religious school that fired a teacher who supports same-sex marriage. It could block the IRS from revoking the tax-exempt status of organizations that promote the belief that marriage is only between one man and one woman. It could ban the federal government from taking action against a hospital that receives federal funds if it refused certain services in some cases.
While the language is not found in The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, some of the core principles in Section 544 echo its recommendations.
Project 2025 calls on the federal government to “Protect faith-based grant recipients from religious liberty violations and maintain a biblically based, social science–reinforced definition of marriage and family,” and “Provide robust protections for religious employers,” while it denounces “the bullying LGBTQ+ agenda.”
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Image via Shutterstock
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